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Weekly Look Ahead

October 12, 2023 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

During the next five days (October 12–16, 2023), an intense low pressure system is forecast to track from the Central Rockies and Great Plains eastward to the Midwest and Central Appalachians. Heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches) is likely to accompany this surface low. On October 12, a vigorous area of mid-level low pressure is expected to bring heavy snow (6 to 12 inches) to the higher elevations of Wyoming. A low pressure system is forecast to move offshore of the Southeast by October 13 after it brings widespread precipitation to parts of the Southeast. Mostly dry weather is forecast to persist across the Tennessee Valley, while much drier weather prevails across the Southern Great Plains. Periods of light to moderate precipitation are expected for the coastal Pacific Northwest.

6–10 Day

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid October 17–21, 2023) favors near- to below-normal precipitation throughout much of the contiguous U.S. with above-normal precipitation most likely across southeastern Alaska.

Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across the West and Northern to Central Great Plains, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for October 10, 2023, written by Brad Pugh and Anthony Artusa (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

6–10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

Probability (Percent Chance) of Below-Normal Precipitation
33%
Probability (Percent Chance) of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability (Percent Chance) of Below-Normal Temperature
33%
Probability (Percent Chance) of Above-Normal Temperature
100%

U.S. Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Forecast

Drought Conditions
Wet Conditions
Drought Conditions
Wet Conditions

Experimental
Experimental

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).