Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program

Record-breaking forest fires during California’s summer months have become a regular occurrence. Wildfires not only cause catastrophic environmental and socioeconomic impacts, but also have negative consequences for human health. Environmental observations indicate that summer burned areas in northern and central California have increased fivefold during 1996 to 2021 compared to 1971 to 1995.

A new computer modeling technique developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) offers the potential to generate months-ahead summertime drought forecasts across the Western United States with the capability of differentiating between dry conditions at locations just a couple of miles apart. The technique uses statistical methods and machine learning to analyze

Key Findings Megadroughts are persistent, multi-year drought events that stand out as especially extreme in terms of severity, duration, or spatial extent when compared to other droughts of the last two thousand years Megadroughts have occurred on every continent outside of Antarctica, often causing major disturbances to ecosystems (e.g., forests in the Southwest U.S.) and societies (e.g

At the end of summer 2021, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported 90% of the West in drought with 54% in Extreme Drought (D3) or Exceptional Drought (D4). Reservoir levels were low across almost the whole West, including the Colorado River Basin's Lakes Powell and Mead at just 31% and 35% of capacity, respectively. Multiple states rated most of their rangelands and pasture in poor to very poor

This summer’s western wildfire season is likely to be more severe than average but not as devastating as last year’s near-record, according to an experimental prediction method developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The new method, detailed in a peer-reviewed study, analyzes precipitation, temperatures, drought, and other climate conditions in the

Although wildfire is part of the natural ecosystem cycle over the western U.S., its intensity and frequency has been increasing at an alarming rate in recent decades. A new study shows that climate change is the main driver of this increase in fire weather in the western United States. And even though wetter and cooler conditions could offer brief respites, more intense and frequent wildfires and

Since early 2020, the Southwest United States has suffered record low precipitation and near-record high temperatures, gripping the region with an unyielding, unprecedented, and costly drought. This exceptional drought—marked by massive water shortages, destructive wildfires, emergency declarations, and the first ever water delivery shortfall among the states sharing the Colorado River—punctuates

For the past two decades, the southwestern United States has been desiccated by one of the most severe long-term droughts—or ‘megadroughts’—of the last 1,200 years. And now, scientists say the risk of similar extreme megadroughts and severe single-year droughts will increase in the future as Earth’s temperature continues to rise, according to a new study in Earth’s Future sponsored by NOAA’s

Click Here to View the Story Map Severe drought once again has come to Texas, bringing with it memories of the state's historic and devastating drought from 2010 to 2015. As folks wait to see what will happen during this year's drought, now is a good time to revisit a Story Map developed by NIDIS and NOAA Climate Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections program (MAPP

The development of drought is a complex process that involves multiple, interwoven relationships between precipitation, land surface temperatures, soil moisture, humidity, and atmospheric patterns. Often, drought is typified by the combination of a lack of precipitation and hot temperatures. However, the exact relationship between the two is not yet fully understood, nor is the role that

NIDIS and NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections program (MAPP) have just launched an interactive presentation that analyzes and explains the historic drought that impacted California from 2011 to 2017. This presentation, called a “Story Map” takes users through a visual history of the drought, using images and graphs to provide an interactive and engaging experience